The Houston Texans currently sit atop the AFC South and Nico Collins has done the heavy lifting for the offense, entering Week 4 trailing only Malik Nabers in receiving yards.
My Jaguars vs. Texans predictions expect the star wideout to keep the production going when he takes on a Jacksonville secondary that has been getting picked apart.
Read more in our NFL picks for Sunday, September 29.
Jaguars vs Texans prediction
My best betNico Collins Over 80.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Before the start of last year, Nico Collins was a relatively unknown player by most. A former third-round pick by the Houston Texans, Collins suffered from both injuries and poor quarterback play before being paired with CJ Stroud.
2023 saw the wideout explode for 80 receptions, 1,300 yards, and eight touchdowns, and 2024 has gotten off to a blazing start for the 25-year-old. Collins ranks second in league receiving yards with 338 yards and has eclipsed Sunday’s O/U of 80.5 in all three games to begin the season.
Collins is set to face a Jacksonville Jaguars secondary that runs man 50% of the time and press coverage 80%+ of the time. He ranks Top-5 in nearly every per-route metric against both, with a 36% and 32% target per route run, a 21% and 20% first down per route run (first in both), and a 4.4 yards per route run against both.
With Tank Dell banged up and questionable for Sunday, Collins could be in for another monster outing.
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Jaguars vs Texans same-game parlay
Nico Collins 80+ receiving yardsGabe Davis anytime touchdownTrevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions
+1,100 at BetMGM
Gabe Davis has been Trevor Lawrence’s favorite red zone target this year, entering Week 4 with a team-leading three inside the 20.
Meanwhile, Lawrence could be due for an interception on Sunday. DeMeco Ryans was able to scheme his defense to force one in both matchups, and Lawrence has struggled more with interceptions on the road. He threw a pick in six of his seven road starts last season, and his lone pick this year also came on the road.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jaguars vs Texans odds
Jaguars vs Texans live odds
Jaguars vs Texans opening odds
- Spread: Jacksonville +4.5 | Houston -4.5
- Moneyline: Jacksonville +185 | Houston -225
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jaguars vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Jaguars have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI).
- Houston has failed to cover the spread this year at 0-2-1, and the Texans were just 10-9 ATS last year.
- These two teams played to a combined score of 45 and 54 last year; Sunday’s total is currently listed at 44.5.
